Tracking Covid Vaccinations (& Return to Economic Normalcy)
So far, more than 5.1 million doses in 22 countries have been administered, including 2.32 million doses in the USA.
We know that courtesy of a state-by-state tally that the infographic team at Bloomberg is doing. It is live, and auto-updates — just wait a few minutes, refresh and the numbers change automagically.
The initial roll out seems slow, but to be fair, the data is going to be reported on a lag in the best of circumstances. Given Christmas/New Year’s holidays, it is going to be even worse this week and next.
Yes, there has been a decided lack of leadership in managing this; but we should expect to see this ramp up over the next few weeks or so regardless. And when the new crew comes in — competent government-believing, science-loving, technocrat types — we can hope for an even more aggressive roll out.
In the meantime, I want to make three guesses:
1. When will I be vaccinated?
2. When will the USA achieve ~70% vaccination rate (needed for herd immunity)?
3. When will the economy return to normal based on GDP and Employment?
My guesses are as follows:
1. My cohort — under 60, no co-morbidities or respiratory issues — will get vaccine between April and May;
2. By July 4th we should be at (or at least very close to) herd immunity
3. GDP at 2% in Q3, 4-5% by Q4 2021; Employment bv Q2 2022
Maybe thats too optimistic, but I hope it is accurate.